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21 independent guides to testing startup and product ideas, grouped by section. Every guide is free to read, with no account.
The foundations of testing an idea: a step-by-step validation method, customer discovery interviews, survey design, idea scorecards and AI scorers, and the mistakes that produce false positives.
Idea ValidationValidation Mistakes: False Positives, Vanity Metrics and Survivorship BiasThe most common ways founders fool themselves during validation: friendly sources, vanity metrics, survivorship bias, the gambler's fallacy…June 2, 2026
Idea ValidationCan AI Score Your Startup Idea? Scorecards, Ratings and Their LimitsWhat AI idea scorers and startup scorecards can and cannot tell you, how to build your own weighted scorecard, and what horse-racing speed…April 21, 2026
Idea ValidationSurvey Design for Idea Validation: Questions, Bias and Sample SizeHow to design a validation survey that measures something real: question wording, common biases, sample size and margin of error, and why…April 7, 2026
Idea ValidationCustomer Discovery Interviews: How to Get Honest AnswersHow to run customer discovery interviews that produce facts rather than compliments: who to talk to, what to ask, what to avoid and how to…March 24, 2026
Idea ValidationHow to Validate a Startup Idea Before You Bet Everything on ItA practical, step-by-step method for testing a startup or product idea: the riskiest assumption, customer evidence, willingness to pay and…March 10, 2026Experiments that measure behaviour rather than opinions: landing-page smoke tests, pre-sales and letters of intent, MVP types, A/B testing statistics and prototype testing in mobile games.
Experiments & MVPsPrototype Testing in Mobile Games: CPI Tests and Retention GatesHow mobile game studios validate game ideas before full production: marketability tests with ads, cost per install, early retention gates…July 14, 2026
Experiments & MVPsA/B Testing Statistics for Founders: Sample Size, Power and PeekingThe statistics behind trustworthy A/B tests explained simply: significance, power, minimum detectable effect, sample size rules of thumb,…June 16, 2026
Experiments & MVPsMVP Types Explained: Concierge, Wizard of Oz and Single-FeatureThe main types of minimum viable product and when to use each: concierge, Wizard of Oz, single-feature and piecemeal MVPs, plus how casinos…May 19, 2026
Experiments & MVPsPre-Sales, Deposits and Letters of Intent: Validation With MoneyWhy money is the strongest validation signal and how to collect it early: pre-orders, refundable deposits, letters of intent, paid pilots,…May 5, 2026
Experiments & MVPsLanding-Page Smoke Tests: Measuring Demand Before You BuildHow to run a landing-page smoke test or fake-door test: what to put on the page, how to buy traffic, how to read conversion odds honestly…March 17, 2026Putting numbers on an idea: pricing tests and willingness to pay, the signals of product-market fit, and an independent overview of the tools used at each stage of validation.
Pricing & MetricsIdea Validation Tools Compared: What to Use at Each StageAn independent overview of the kinds of tools used to validate ideas, from interview scheduling and surveys to landing pages, analytics,…August 11, 2026
Pricing & MetricsProduct-Market Fit: The Signals That Matter and How to Measure ThemHow to tell whether you have product-market fit: the Sean Ellis 40% test, flattening retention curves, organic growth and how a casino…July 28, 2026
Pricing & MetricsPricing Tests: How to Measure Willingness to PayPractical ways to test pricing before and after launch: Van Westendorp, Gabor-Granger, price-page experiments, anchoring and decoys, and…April 14, 2026Where startups meet the maths of risk: expected value and bankrolls, poker skills for founders, A/B testing versus gambler's intuition, prediction markets, casino product testing, crowdfunding odds and betting-industry start-ups.
Bets & OddsSports-Betting Data Startups: Validating a Data-Driven IdeaHow sports-betting data businesses work and how to validate an idea in the space: official data rights, odds and pricing models, tracking…October 13, 2026
Bets & OddsCrowdfunding vs. the Lottery Mindset: Pre-Validated LaunchesThe difference between a crowdfunding campaign that validates demand and one that is a lottery ticket: odds, base rates, the Pebble story,…September 22, 2026
Bets & OddsCasino Product Design as a Case Study in TestingHow casinos test and tune their products: slot maths and return-to-player, field trials, player data and control groups, floor layout…August 25, 2026
Bets & OddsPoker Skills for Founders: Deciding Under UncertaintyWhat founders can learn from poker: pot odds, thinking in ranges, position, folding early, bankroll management, tilt and the online poker…July 7, 2026
Bets & OddsPrediction Markets as Idea Validators: Kalshi, Polymarket and ManifoldCan betting on outcomes validate a product idea? How prediction markets work, the Iowa, Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold models, corporate…June 9, 2026
Bets & OddsA/B Testing vs. Gambler's Intuition: Significance and the Gambler's FallacyWhy gut feeling misreads experiments: the gambler's fallacy, the 1913 Monte Carlo run on black, the hot-hand debate, false positives across…May 12, 2026
Bets & OddsValidating iGaming and Sports-Betting Startup IdeasHow to test an online casino, sportsbook or betting-tech idea before committing: licensing hurdles, B2B versus B2C, affiliate economics,…April 28, 2026
Bets & OddsStartups as Bets: Expected Value, Bankrolls and Portfolio ThinkingWhy a startup is a bet and how to think like a professional gambler about it: expected value, Kelly-style bankroll sizing, venture power…March 31, 2026