Guides

Bets & Odds

Where startups meet the maths of risk: expected value and bankrolls, poker skills for founders, A/B testing versus gambler's intuition, prediction markets, casino product testing, crowdfunding odds and betting-industry start-ups.

All Bets & Odds guides

8 guides
Tiers of football fans filling the stands at the City of Manchester StadiumBets & OddsSports-Betting Data Startups: Validating a Data-Driven IdeaHow sports-betting data businesses work and how to validate an idea in the space: official data rights, odds and pricing models, tracking…October 13, 2026An original Pebble smartwatch in its open box next to a coinBets & OddsCrowdfunding vs. the Lottery Mindset: Pre-Validated LaunchesThe difference between a crowdfunding campaign that validates demand and one that is a lottery ticket: odds, base rates, the Pebble story,…September 22, 2026Neon signs and slot machines seen from above on a casino floor in RenoBets & OddsCasino Product Design as a Case Study in TestingHow casinos test and tune their products: slot maths and return-to-player, field trials, player data and control groups, floor layout…August 25, 2026Dealers seated at rows of poker tables in the 2008 World Series of Poker tournament roomBets & OddsPoker Skills for Founders: Deciding Under UncertaintyWhat founders can learn from poker: pot odds, thinking in ranges, position, folding early, bankroll management, tilt and the online poker…July 7, 2026Trading desks and price boards on the floor of the Frankfurt Stock ExchangeBets & OddsPrediction Markets as Idea Validators: Kalshi, Polymarket and ManifoldCan betting on outcomes validate a product idea? How prediction markets work, the Iowa, Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold models, corporate…June 9, 2026A single-zero roulette wheel in wood and brass seen from aboveBets & OddsA/B Testing vs. Gambler's Intuition: Significance and the Gambler's FallacyWhy gut feeling misreads experiments: the gambler's fallacy, the 1913 Monte Carlo run on black, the hot-hand debate, false positives across…May 12, 2026Odds boards and television screens above rows of seats in the MGM Grand sportsbookBets & OddsValidating iGaming and Sports-Betting Startup IdeasHow to test an online casino, sportsbook or betting-tech idea before committing: licensing hurdles, B2B versus B2C, affiliate economics,…April 28, 2026Stacks of black, blue, red and green poker chips on a reflective surfaceBets & OddsStartups as Bets: Expected Value, Bankrolls and Portfolio ThinkingWhy a startup is a bet and how to think like a professional gambler about it: expected value, Kelly-style bankroll sizing, venture power…March 31, 2026

Key ideas in this section

  1. Price the bet. Expected value first: probability times payoff, minus the stake.
  2. Size the stake. Bankroll thinking stops one idea from wiping you out.
  3. Judge decisions, not results. A good decision can lose and a bad one can win.

Don't gamble on your startup idea.
Validate it and make data-driven decisions.

Read: how to validate a startup idea →